THE BAILOUT

September 28th, 2008

Here is the full text of the bill. Here are some key elements:

  • Secretary of the Treasury is the key decisionmaker and has great latitude
  • The scope of securities purchases can go beyond just mortgage-related securities
  • Can hold or sell securities based on what is best for the taxpayer
  • Auctions will likely be an important mechanism
  • Initial amount is $250 billion outstanding without additional Congressional ok, $700 billion overall
  • No sales of troubled securities to TARP (Troubled Asset Relief  Program) at prices higher than price when purchased by a Financial Institution
  • Treasury may guarantee securities and collect premiums for doing so
  • Oversight Board shall consist of Fed Chairman, Director of FHFA, SEC Chairman and HUD Secretary
  • Semi-annual report to Congress
  • Will maximize assistance to homeowners and direct servicers in such a manner
  • Limits on executive pay while Treasury owns securities purchased from a specific institution
  • Treasury can own stock or warrants in a financial institutions at his discretion if an auction is not feasible
  • All trades shall be available on the internet
  • SEC can suspend "mark to market" accounting
  • "Recoupment Tax" in five years if taxpayers have lost money on this program

So what does this mean? Well, assuming the bill on-line now is the one that is voted upon? It means the following:

  • The Secretary of the Treasury has immense power and discretion over how this works
  • There will be significant foreclosure mitigation efforts designed to keep people in their homes
  • This will be a reasonably transparent process
  • This may not be the last step the Treasury takes to combat the credit crisis
  • This will probably slow down and stretch out the housing decline
  • This should have a significant near-term impact on the credit markets
  • This will NOT stop additional bank failures which will be coming
  • This will distort the market for mortgage backed securities for years and we will not see that market return soon

The direct impact on Maui real estate?

  • This will settle the buyer panic down a little
  • Fewer foreclosures

We will continue to think about the impact of this bailout.